According to Transport Canada's 2007 traveller numbers, the country handled more than 100 million passengers for the second time in 2007, on modest trans-border growth and solid domestic and overseas growth.

Per a preliminary Transport Canada forecast obtained by the CAC this week, the country is projected to have handled 107 million passengers (enplaned/deplaned) in 2007 - an increase of 5.7%.  This included trans-border growth of 2.8%, domestic growth of 6.1% and 7.8% in overseas passenger growth.

Domestically, the growth significantly outpaced Transport's March 2007 forecast of a 3.4% increase for the year nevertheless the preliminary forecast projects growth of 3.9% for 2008, decreasing to about 3.1% a year through 2011, and slower growth beyond.  By Transport projections, the country could enjoy domestic traffic in excess of 100 million passengers by the mid 2020s - a 59% increase over today.

In terms of international traffic, much of the growth in 2007 was due to an increase in Canadian travellers traveling abroad on the back of a strong Canadian dollar and a continued strong economy. 

In transborder air service, for example, a 6% increase in air trips by Canadian residents more than offset the 3.5% decrease in Americans.  Nevertheless, at the end of 2006 there had been a smaller decline over 2005 (2.4%) of trips by American travellers and a bigger increase (7.9%) in transborder trips by Canadian travellers. 

So what do 2008 and beyond hold in store for the transborder market?  According to the preliminary forecast, which still could be revised before the final release in March if economic conditions dramatically deteriorate, transborder traffic is projected to increase 3.6% in 2008 and a higher 4.3-4.5% a year after that through 2011.

Looking back at what Transport was projecting in March 2007 in its annual forecast, the country outpaced its expected transborder performance in 2007 but the department had slightly rosier projections of 4.8-5% growth a year for the transborder over the next few years.  By 2026, the department nevertheless projects 42 million transborder passengers.

Revised upwards are the projections for overseas traffic growth.  This is anticipated to grow 8% in 2008, but a slower 5-7% a year through 2011 and slower but steady growth of around 4% a year through 2021. 

If the 2026 projection of 42 million overseas passengers holds true, this would represent a 131% increase. Perhaps more importantly, it would mean that overseas passengers would make up about as many as transborder passengers for Canada, each with about 22% of the total traffic. 

Today transborder represents just 20% of passengers while overseas passengers represent 17%.  As a share of passengers, domestic would decrease from about 62% today to 55% by 2026.

International Travellers - Changing Patterns

Internationally today, in addition to seeing an increase in Canadians travelling overseas, there is a shift in the patterns of overseas travellers coming to Canada.  Plateaus or declines continue in many of Canada's traditionally strong markets for overseas visitors - France (up 1.5% at 353,000 trips), Germany (up 1.9% at 304,000 trips), Hong Kong (3% at 107,000 trips), Japan (down 14.6% at 328,000 trips), and the Netherlands (up 2.3% at 118,000).  Trips by Europeans were up 4.1% while travellers from Asia actually were down 1.5%.

These results are not really being offset by increases in other markets because the pure traveller numbers in the growth markets are not as big.The biggest growth rates from overseas markets for 2007 were reported from Spain (18.4% but just 65,000 trips), India (17.5% but currently just under 100,000 trips), the Philippines (17% at 55,000 trips).

As a result, total trips by overseas residents were up just 3.5% in 2007 over 2006.Nevertheless this was a big improvement over the 0.3% increase reported in 2006 over 2005! And South Korea, a big market with just under 200,000 travellers, posted a 5.6% increase in trips. while Canada's biggest market, the UK with 863,000 trips) posted a 5.1% increase. Neither growth rates merit a sneeze.

There were two big traveller markets in which solid gains were reported:  Oceania and Latin America.  With 250,000 trips, mostly by Australians, 9.8% growth was reported from the Oceania region.  This included high numbers for both Australia (9.9%) and New Zealand (8.1%) - two markets in which trans-Pacific air service options were increased in recent memory.

In Latin America, there was a whopping 17.3% increase in trips by residents of Mexico for 2007 - representing some 230,000 trips, which is more than the number from South Korea or Hong Kong and mainland China combined.  The 141,000 trips from South Americans represented an 8.7% increase, including 2.4% growth in trips (61,000) from Brazilians and a 14.1% increase in trips from "other" South American markets. 

While there has been an increase in Mexican air carrier service into Canada, the continued growth in Canadian air carrier routes must be attributed for the South American growth as South America's air carriers remain largely absent from the Canadian skies.

The continued security issues associated with liquids, gels and aerosols (LAGS) have contributed to continued depressed sales of key categories at Canada's airport duty free shops, according to 2007 data released last week from the Frontier Duty Free Association.

While 2007 sales were up 7.6% over 2007, total airport duty free sales remain down 6% over 2005 levels (a year already negatively impacted by the LAG ban that came into effect that August).

CAC members in Halifax, Ottawa, and Vancouver recently secured top recognition in the Airports Council International's latest Airport Service Quality (ASQ) awards.

Halifax-Robert L. Stanfield International Airport, Ottawa International Airport and Vancouver International Airport were recognised as being within the top five in their class in several ASQ awards.  The ASQ rankings are based on the results from nearly 200,000 questionnaires completed by passengers in 2007.  The survey captures the passenger's immediate appraisal of 34 airport service factors, from check-in through to departure at the gate.

Halifax and Ottawa took first and second place respectively in the category of "Best Airport with fewer than 5 million passengers."  They also took first and third place in "Best Domestic Airport," and second and third place in "Best Airport by Region for North America." 

Vancouver was recognised in fourth place for "Best Airport - 15-25 million passengers" and Halifax received the North American "Airport People" award.

"The last few years have been extremely busy and satisfying," notes Sellick. "Our $36 million 2010 Development Program is well underway which includes terminal and parking lot expansions, two new aircraft loading bridges and construction of the runway extension, which begins later this month. The 2025 Master Plan has also been completed which outlines a sound phased approach to accommodate the airport's growth and land use needs for the future. This is a good time for a change and for new ideas."

Sellick will assist in the transition period while the search for a new airport general manager is underway. In the meantime Sam Samaddar, formerly assistant general manager, airport development, has been appointed interim airport general manager. Samaddar will oversee day to day operations at Kelowna International during the transition period.

The CAC thanks Roger for his years of service at the CAC. including his service on the board of directors.  We wish him the best of luck in his future endeavors.

The Canadian International Freight Forwarders Association (CIFFA) has announced the appointment of Ruth Snowden as its new executive director, effective Feb. 11.

Ms. Snowden brings a diverse background of leadership, industry and association experience to CIFFA. During her long and varied career in freight forwarding she has filled several senior sales, management, and executive positions - always with CIFFA member companies. 

Ms. Snowden has been actively engaged with CIFFA for many years, first as a volunteer and more recently in a consulting capacity. 

For several years, small airports have been concerned with the unreasonable burden they face to implement government regulations that are inappropriate for the class of airport. To measure the impact of this burden, the CAC commissioned a survey of members.

To get a detailed picture of the issue, last summer, the CAC surveyed the members of its Small Airports Committee.  Fourteen airports completed the survey identifying twenty one regulatory requirements as causing or having the potential to cause significant economic impact on small airports.  

An analysis of the data gathered was conducted and the Small Airports Committee agreed to focus on the areas which generated the highest identification of concern and which also happen to correspond with the ones that the CAC has the utmost potential to influence with Transport Canada.

The requirement to implement safety management systems (SMS) is the requirement that generated to most concern.  To better understand how the evaluation of SMS's will be tailored to reflect the risk and the capacity of small airports to manage the financial and administrative burden imposed by this regulatory requirement, the CAC has invited Transport Canada to address the Small Airports Committee when it meets in April.